Looking through the high-voltage inverter price war to see the future development of high-voltage frequency conversion

For high-voltage inverter companies, 2010 was the cruelest and most struggling year in the history of the industry. As the high-voltage inverter price warfare product price wars were successively staged, so that some companies have always followed breathlessly, followed by a serious "physical overdraft."

In 2011, the high-voltage frequency converter industry will end the disorderly and blind expansion of the past few years and clearly enter the shuffling period; after experiencing the rapid growth period of the past five years, the high-voltage frequency-converter industry will grow steadily this year; some companies Forced to withdraw from the market, some companies are trying to seek mergers and reorganizations in order to increase their ability to withstand market risks.

I. Current situation: the spread of "price wars"

The companies get together and listed, which has become a microcosm of the high voltage inverter industry in 2010.

However, the convenience of financing did not make people feel the rapid technological advancement, but first of all made people immediately feel the cold wind brought by the price war.

Industry insiders explained to reporters: "This year's price war is largely related to the excessive number of listed companies. Because the listed company's financing channels are more convenient and the financial strength is relatively strong, they sometimes kill the competitors, and they will not hesitate to price when bidding. On the other hand, there are some companies that have been trying hard to pursue financial data such as market share and industry ranking before they are listed. To make them 'pretty', these companies will initiate price wars and severely disrupt the market order.” Did not think a large number of listed companies involved in the incident, even triggered such a severe shock.

In fact, price wars existed as early as the financial crisis. However, when reporters inquired about the market situation from the industry in 2010, almost everyone said with helplessness: “The price war is playing! Play even more powerful!” This also became a memory for reporters in the past year. One of the lenses.

From the financial statements of listed companies, it is not difficult to find that with the repeated appearance of price wars, the gross profit margins of various companies have long been out of the “prosperous scene” when they were first listed. Securities company researchers expect that this situation will continue to spread in the next few years.

Second, the trend: large capacity and then extended

To talk about the development of high-voltage inverters in China, we must mention the development of large-capacity high-voltage inverters. It is true that high-capacity high-voltage frequency converters place higher requirements on technology and represent the overall technical strength of a company. In recent years, major domestic manufacturers have also been increasing the research and development of large-capacity high-voltage frequency converters.

“Domestic manufacturers basically concentrate on multi-level solutions in series units, and they mainly focus on energy-saving applications such as fans and pumps. It is necessary to break through the industrialization of high-voltage inverters with high-performance applications such as three-level structures and rolling mills, but in terms of large capacity. With some progress, the 10000kVA air-cooled high-voltage frequency converter launched by Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric (002169) and the 25000kVA water-cooled high-voltage frequency converter launched by Shanghai Guangdian Electric (601616) have passed the testimony of users and national product inspections.” China Electric Industry Association, inverter branch Deputy Secretary General Wei Wei said.

In addition to the above companies, Leader's 8000kW/10kV (equivalent to 10000kVA/10kV) high-voltage inverters also created a sales performance of the largest domestic high-voltage inverter in November. Lead Huafu 10000kVA/10kV frequency conversion speed control equipment is currently the domestic maximum power level of the inverter, it put into operation to fill the gap in the domestic technology, and further laid the domestic high-voltage inverter high-power applications of the leading position. At the same time, from the 5600kW/10kV to 7500kW/10kV, to the successful operation of 8000kW/10kV, Lead Huafu has been leading the high-voltage frequency conversion market almost all the way, and it is also climbing high-power applications.

Third, look forward to: tap the market blank point

With the constant excavation of high-quality customers, in the fierce competition, how should the high-voltage frequency converter industry develop, and which areas are worthy of people's attention?

Wind power converters are one of the few components in wind power equipment that fail to achieve localization. Dongguan Securities Researcher Yu Chunyan said in an exclusive interview with this reporter: “At present, China’s wind power converters are imported from abroad at more than 90%, and the gross profit margin is about 50%. The top three wind power converters are CONVERTEAM, ABB, Emerson currently listed on the company's Rongxin Group (002123) (in cooperation with Goldwind Technology (002202)), Haide Control (002184), Hunan Electric (600416) and Jiuzhou Electric (300040) in the implementation of wind power converters Development and promotion."

For another example, the current situation in which large-capacity high-voltage inverters are widely used in the erection of oil and gas pipelines is rare. With the increase of energy-saving policies, the market will further expand. Every year, 5,000 kilometers of new pipelines will be built, one station for every 150 kilometers, and each station will need 3 to 4 frequency converters. Before that, the domestic market will be occupied almost entirely by foreign manufacturers. Overcome the technical difficulties and achieve the technical commanding heights. According to the reporter's understanding, a number of companies have begun to carry out technical research on the project.

Fourth, the overall growth rate of the high-voltage frequency converter market in 2012 is rapid, and the future development prospects are optimistic.

The downstream customers of high-voltage inverters are mainly concentrated in the electric power, metallurgy, coal, petrochemical, cement, papermaking, municipal, and transportation sectors, and are mostly large state-owned industrial and mining enterprises. Through the research and target decomposition of the 2020 emission reduction targets announced by the State Council, and taking into account the policy implementation capabilities of state-owned enterprises, we believe that these high-energy-consuming state-owned large and medium-sized enterprises will play a major role in future energy conservation and emission reduction efforts. , will also enjoy more policy support accordingly

In 2010, the central government allocated 141.288 billion yuan in environmental protection expenditures, an increase of 26.129 billion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over 2009. Among them, 8.3 billion yuan was allocated for energy saving and emission reduction. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s environmental protection investment will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, which will more than double the 1.4 trillion yuan during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. It is estimated that by 2015, China's energy-saving and environmental protection industry will reach 5.3 trillion yuan, equivalent to 8%-10% of GDP for the same period. As the main force and vanguard of energy conservation and emission reduction, high-voltage inverters have huge market demand in the future.

As of the end of 2006, the installed capacity of electric motors in the country was about 580 million kW, and high-voltage motors accounted for about half. Among them, nearly 70% of the loads in the high-voltage motors are fans, pumps, compressors, etc. Half of these loads are suitable for speed regulation, that is, about 10,150 kilowatts of high-voltage motors are in a state of wasteful operation. According to the current average price estimate of approximately 800 yuan per kW high-voltage frequency converter, the potential market for high-voltage inverters is as high as 81.2 billion yuan, irrespective of the need for new high-voltage motors for frequency control in the future. At present, the installed capacity of electric motors in China is still increasing, reaching 622 million kW by the end of 2007, an increase of 7.2% from the installed capacity of 580 million kW motors at the end of 2006.

Stimulated by huge market demand, China's high-voltage inverter market has grown rapidly. In 2005, the market size of high-voltage inverters was approximately 1.09 billion yuan, while in 2008 it had reached 3.4 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate was above 40%. According to the “2009 China High Voltage Inverter Market Research Report” forecast: In 2012, China's high voltage inverter market will reach 15 billion yuan, and the market growth rate in the next few years will remain at a high level of 40% or more.