Electronic information manufacturing slows down

At the beginning of 2014, under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday cycle, the industry showed a clear wave of momentum. The first quarter data shows that China's electronic information manufacturing industry has slowed down significantly, and industrial added value and sales output have entered a new low-speed growth range. Communication equipment manufacturing industry has ended rapid development, and the industry urgently needs to tap new growth points. The industrial export situation has deteriorated sharply, and new requirements have been put forward for product structure adjustment and quality improvement. At present, there are prominent problems in the industry, such as increasing pressure to increase quality and efficiency, not having established new industrial growth points, and worrying about the operating conditions of some enterprises, and facing limited growth in the international market and domestic demand market. Opportunity windows of new growth points have emerged, and cross-border integration has triggered companies. With the profound changes in the competitive landscape and other situations, it is expected that the electronic information manufacturing industry will maintain low-speed growth in the second quarter, but the policy effect needs to be concentrated.

Industrial growth speeds down, import and export situation is grim

The industry is facing increasing pressure to improve quality and efficiency, structural adjustment has not yet formed a stable pillar industry, and some industries are under stress.

In the first quarter, China's electronic information manufacturing industry entered a period of industrial adjustment that was not optimistic, and the decline in output value and export growth exceeded expectations, but LED segments, photovoltaic industry and other sub-sectors performed well. In general, the entire industry is facing pressures to increase quality and efficiency, and industrial restructuring has not yet formed a stable pillar industry, and some of the industry operating conditions are worrying and other pressure.

The first is that the growth rate of the industry has been slowed down, and the growth rate of products has been significantly different. From January to March, China's electronic information manufacturing industry achieved a sales value of 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, which was 3.6 and 1.5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year and the same period of the previous year. The value-added of manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 11.3%, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year and the same period of the previous year, with an increase of -0.2% and 0.1% respectively, and 2.6 percentage points ahead of the industrial average.

The growth rate of production of the main products has divided. On the one hand, the growth rate of microcomputers and mobile phones, etc., continued to decline. From January to March, the industry produced a total of 79.73 million sets of microcomputers and 390 million sets of mobile phones, which represented a decrease of 8.9 and 5.2 percentage points over the same period of last year. On the other hand, the output of integrated circuits and color TVs increased significantly, producing 20,050 million and 31,321,000 units, respectively, which represented a year-on-year growth of 11.4 and 7.1 percentage points. In addition, mobile communication base stations became the biggest bright spot for product growth in the first quarter, with an increase of 151.1%.

Second, the growth rate of major industries declined, and the subdivided areas of photovoltaic LEDs performed well. The communications equipment manufacturing industry still leads the development of the industry, but its growth rate has declined rapidly compared to last year. From January to March, the sales value of communication equipment industry achieved a growth of 18.8%, which was higher than the average level of the industry by 9.8 percentage points, but decreased by 6.2 percentage points from the same period of last year. Under the positive influence of the issuance of 4G licenses, mobile communication base stations have experienced a rapid growth of more than 150%, which is expected to stimulate the growth of mobile communication terminals in the future.

Affected by the adjustment of the global market structure, the prices of mature products such as microcomputers and color TVs have declined, and sales revenue growth has slowed. From January to March, the growth rate of the home audio-visual industry and computer output was 3.0% and 1.3% respectively, down 6 and 8.4 percentage points.

In terms of subdivision areas, the growth rate of the integrated circuit industry fluctuated considerably, falling by 27.6 percentage points from January to February compared with the same period of last year. However, it reversed growth from January to March, 11.4 percentage points higher than the same period, and the adoption of follow-up support policies is expected to continue. Drive industry growth. Photovoltaic and LED industries have grown in a contrarian fashion and they are operating in a good position.

According to customs statistics, China's solar cell exports from January to March reached 3.09 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. According to the statistics of China Semiconductor Lighting/LED Industry and Application Alliance, LED applications have recently been recognized by the market, leading enterprises are generally full-scale, and many companies have begun to add new equipment to expand production.

Third, the import and export situation is grim, and the export market presents many new features. Due to the high base of the previous year and the impact of cracking down on counterfeit trade in Hong Kong, the growth of China's import and export of electronic information products turned positive in the first quarter, and the foreign trade situation was severe. From January to March, total imports and exports were US$285.6 billion, an increase of -12.4% over the same period of last year. Among them, exports accounted for 166.4 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of -11.5%, which was lower than the national average of 8.1 percentage points; imports accounted for 117.2 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of -13.8%, a growth rate lower than the national average of 15.4%, which was lower than the 44.5 figure for the same period in 2013. Percentage. From January to March, the export growth rate decreased by 39.2 and 15.5 percentage points over the same period of 2013 and the same period of 2012, respectively, and decreased by 39.2, 30.3, 26.1, and 23.4 percentage points from the respective quarters in 2013.

At the same time, the export of electronic information manufacturing has shown a series of new features. The electronic device industry experienced the first negative growth in exports, of which IC exports grew by more than 270 percentage points, and the growth rate of the communications equipment industry, which once maintained rapid growth, decreased by 14.2 percentage points. The home audiovisual industry's exports reversed the negative growth since March last year. For the first time, the foreign-invested enterprises' exports showed negative growth for the first time.

Fourth, the industry bottomed out at a new low, and some companies have difficulties in operating. From January to February 2014, the industry achieved a profit of RMB29.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0%. The industry achieved a profit margin of 2.2%, which was 3 percentage points lower than the industrial average and became the lowest level since 2012. From January to February, the main business cost increased by 6.2%, 0.3% higher than the revenue growth, and the cost per 100 yuan of main business income was 90.3 yuan, which was 5.1 yuan higher than the industrial average, 0.4 yuan higher than the same period of last year. .

According to statistics of some industry associations, due to the impact of Internet companies, traditional TV manufacturers are on the verge of losses; while the communications industry enterprises have strong overall strength, but under the pressure of giants such as Apple and Samsung, the average profit is only 2%. ~3%.

Industry pressure to increase quality and increase efficiency has not yet formed a new growth point

The emerging growth point has not yet formed a market scale, and there is still a big gap to replace traditional advantageous industries.

The pressure on quality and efficiency of electronic information manufacturing industry in China will increase significantly. Whether or not it can effectively resolve adjustment pressures and cultivate new growth drivers will require several steps: First, whether core technologies and key equipment can actually make breakthroughs, and second, how to reduce or even get rid of the long-term dependence on assembly and processing development models, Third, whether new growth points can be found and the market scale can be rapidly expanded. Fourth, whether the secondary development of overseas markets can be achieved through brand building, and whether it can be realized from manufacturing to manufacturing, software, the Internet, and information The transformation of new industrial structure with the integration of service development.

The growth rate of the traditional advantageous industries has obviously slowed down, and new growth points are being formed but the scale is small. Due to the rapid increase in the popularity of mobile phones, the growth rate of the communications equipment industry that has led the industry in the past two years has begun to decline. The policies of integrated circuits have not yet had a positive impact. The emerging growth point has not yet formed a market size. In 2013, the information consumption and broadband China strategies were successively introduced. The industry generally believes that it will bring new growth points to the industry. Cloud computing, big data, wearable devices, smart homes and other fields have become the hot spots of the market. However, the current market size in these areas is relatively small, and there is still a big gap to replace traditional advantageous industries.

The most prominent is the color TV industry, due to the strong impact of Internet companies, the industry continued to decline in efficiency. In the stage when the current business model is not yet clear and the television content service fails to contribute benefits, Internet companies generally adopt the practice of subsidizing the TV unit price with service charges, which causes the color TV prices to fall rapidly and the traditional manufacturers face a dangerous situation of negative profits. The same is not optimistic about the mobile phone industry, according to the survey, due to the continuous increase in raw materials and labor costs, the core chips are subject to control, the overall profit margin of China's mobile phone industry is only about 3%.

Second quarter growth in output value is expected to achieve 10% growth

China's industry will usher in a period of rapid increase in technology and industrialization capabilities. It is expected that the output value in the second quarter will increase by 10%.

Although the industry as a whole has already bid farewell to the era of rapid growth, the quality of industrial development is expected to increase further. With the continuous introduction of new technologies and new products in the world, China’s industries will also usher in a period of rapid increase in the ability of technology and industrialization. Under the guidance of the policy, basic industries such as integrated circuits, flat panel displays and photovoltaics will grow rapidly and healthily, and information consumption, TD-LTE, and the Internet of Things will become new growth points.

Overall, China's electronic information manufacturing industry will continue to maintain low-speed growth in 2014. It is expected that the sales growth rate of electronic information manufacturing industry in the second quarter will be slightly higher than the first quarter, which is approximately 10%; the growth rate of added value will basically maintain the status quo About 11%.