Video industry shifts to "second half", VR, AR technology or new video business dividend

On November 8, the Group officially made its debut on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As a key player in Tencent’s broader entertainment ecosystem, the company has launched numerous online literary works, including recent viral hits like “Gengbang” and “Ghost Blowing Lights.” These projects not only captivate audiences but also serve as rich material for the video industry. On the same day, an official from Tencent’s film and television division revealed that the third season of the popular web drama “Ghost Blowing the Light” is already in development and is set to air next year. Meanwhile, a live-action reality show called “King of the Kings,” based on the mobile game “King of Honor,” will launch in December. At the event, Ma Yanxi, vice president of Penguin Film and Television, emphasized that the industry has entered the era of super IP, where content creation is no longer just about individual programs, but about building intellectual properties and developing the entire industry chain. After years of growth, the online video sector has reached a turning point. As Yang Weidong, president of Youku, stated, the industry is now in its second half. In terms of short and long video competition, Bao Zheng from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted that the early days of the online video industry were dominated by UGC (User-Generated Content), particularly short videos. However, due to challenges in monetization and the push toward legal content, long videos have proven more profitable through subscriptions, ads, and other revenue models. That said, the rise of live streaming has given short videos a new boost. Zhu Min, a researcher at the Communication University of China, pointed out that 2016 marked the beginning of the short video era, with major players and investors pushing the industry forward. Short videos have become a powerful gateway for internet traffic, evidenced by the rapid growth of platforms like Toutiao and the integration of short video features into social media giants like Weibo. Recently, the net drama scene has also seen a surge in popularity, with titles such as “God of Rivers,” “The White Night,” “The Crime of No Card,” and “The Spring Breeze Is Better Than You” becoming major hits. Bao Zheng believes that the quality of these online dramas is now comparable to traditional TV shows. For instance, the popularity of “China’s Hip-Hop” exceeded 2.7 billion views this year. Bao Yu explained that internet-based video products are designed to maximize user time. Long videos cater to concentrated viewing periods, while short videos fill fragmented time slots. This dynamic has contributed to the recent resurgence of short video platforms. As the industry moves into what many call the “second half,” there is a growing consensus that the era of explosive growth is fading. Bao Yu noted that video content has saturated user time, and the industry is now entering a post-bread period. The days of aggressive expansion are over, and future growth will depend on gradual increases in internet users. Additionally, the post-product bonus era has arrived. Bao Zheng pointed out that while long videos once led the market, today both long and short formats coexist, each targeting different time segments. However, the room for further growth is limited, and the initial dividends from video services are diminishing. Emerging formats like VR and AR still need technological breakthroughs to gain traction. Sun Zhonghuai, CEO of Penguin Film and Television, highlighted that the online video industry is in a phase of rapid development. With 560 million users in China, the number of paying users is expected to surpass 100 million by the end of the year. Bao Yu added that the payment model is now stable, with users increasingly willing to pay for premium content due to convenience and the desire for high-quality experiences. However, the industry also faces challenges, such as content fatigue. Bao Zheng noted that most themes have been explored, and the novelty of certain genres is fading. The arrival of the post-dividend era signals that the industry is maturing. From a market structure perspective, iQiyi, Youku, and Tencent Video have formed a three-way competition, supported by strong capital backing. As market shares stabilize, the focus has shifted to internal strength and innovation. The video industry is now entering a stage of ecological competition. Zhu Min explained that IP is no longer confined to a single medium but is expanding across multiple platforms. Companies like iQiyi, Youku, and Tencent Video are leveraging their parent companies—Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent—to build integrated ecosystems that span literature, games, and more. Yang Weidong emphasized the importance of full-chain IP digestion, highlighting how content can be adapted across different platforms. For example, when a series becomes popular, related books, music, and merchandise quickly follow. Irene Consulting analyst Zhang Xintian noted that video companies are moving away from merely purchasing copyrights and instead focusing on content production. With rising copyright costs, the competition is now about controlling the entire supply chain. High-quality content remains the core of the battle. Looking ahead, Zhu Min predicts that video companies will invest heavily in original content and integrate ads more seamlessly. Native advertising and interlude ads may become the norm, while value-added services could become a major revenue stream beyond traditional advertising.

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