Photovoltaic industry bottoming up and profit loss have profit

After experiencing the quagmire of overcapacity and the “double reverse” killing in Europe and America, the photovoltaic industry in the long calendar winter has finally ushered in a touch of warmth.

In the US stocks trading on September 4, the stocks of PV stocks of China Prospectors performed extremely well. Hanwha Solar Energy soared 15.86%, Yanhui Sunshine soared 14.88%, Yingli New Energy rose 9.07%, Trina Solar Energy Rose 8.95%.

As a result of this stimulus, today's A-share listed photovoltaic concept stocks also have outstanding performance. As of press release, Jinggong Technology, Ruifeng’s strong daily limit, has become the leader of leading PV stocks, Zhou Ming Technology, Tuo Ri Xineng, and Yi Jing Optoelectronics. , * ST Chaori and other stocks have significantly increased performance.

Is the photovoltaic industry rebounding at the bottom? What are the performances of the mid-stream and downstream companies in the industry chain?

The 36 listed companies of the A-share photovoltaic sector achieved an overall net profit of approximately RMB 12.208 million in the second quarter of 2013. In the same period of last year and the first quarter of this year, this figure was a loss of 500 million yuan and 7.08 million yuan respectively. According to the observation of the 21st Century Network, in addition to LDK, which was caught in a reorganization and underemployment, the gross profit margins of major PV companies have been greatly increased. JinkoSolar has reached 18.3%, which makes it the first time since the third quarter of 2011 to turn losses into a sole one-quarter profitable company; and Trina Solar and Atss are expected at the post-finance analyst meeting In the fourth quarter, it will achieve profitability and realize positive profits.

LDK's second-quarter financial report showed that the loss was about 1.02 billion yuan, plus the 1.1 billion yuan loss in the first quarter, LDK LDK still had a huge loss of 2.1 billion in the first half.

Photovoltaic bid farewell to the cold winter

The cold winter of photovoltaics that has continued since 2011 has finally shown signs of recovery. All major PV companies listed in the United States have already announced their second-quarter financial reports. The most difficult period in the photovoltaic industry seems to have passed and the turning point of the industry has surfaced.

Recently, domestic PV manufacturers have successively announced the 2013 semi-annual report, and the overall profitability has rebounded significantly. Taking photovoltaic manufacturing company Yijing Optoelectronics as an example, the company’s revenue for the first half of the year was RMB 1.186 billion, an increase of 40.14% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 5.0804 million, compared to a loss of RMB 279 million in the same period of last year. Another sunflower plant that invested in the power plant project, despite a first-half income of 517 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 117.5% year-on-year, close to 30 million yuan.

Solar power, which is dominated by photovoltaic inverters, has achieved both revenue and net profit. According to its semi-annual report, from January to June, operating income was 723 million yuan, an increase of 99.59% year-on-year; net profit was 5,391,290 yuan, an increase of 19.53% year-on-year.

Hanergy Solar, a Hong Kong-listed company, saw a sharp increase in gross profit in the first half of the year. According to its published financial statements for the first half of the year, as of June, Hanergy Solar's revenue was 2.08 billion yuan, an increase of 27% year-on-year; gross profit was 1.675 billion yuan, up 52.6%, and net profit grew 86.8% to 1.442 billion yuan.

In view of the fact that most domestic PV companies still have other business support, it is not enough to conclude that the PV warming is convincing. However, by reviewing the second-quarter earnings of US-listed PV companies, there is more data to support the report.

Since the end of May, CNPV’s share price of Hanwha Solar Energy Co., Ltd. has risen by 110%, and JinkoSolar Co., Ltd. has gained 112%. Yanhui Sunshine’s share price has soared by 156% since the beginning of July.

According to the statistics of the reporter, in addition to Suntech, which is undergoing bankruptcy and reorganization, Yingli Solar, Trina Solar, Artes, Jinke Energy, Yanhui Sunshine and other photovoltaic companies have seen significant increases in both shipments and gross margins in the second quarter of this year.

Among them, Yingli’s shipment volume in the second quarter increased by 23.6% from the first quarter, breaking the record of photovoltaic manufacturers and accounting for nearly 10% of the global market share; Yanhui Sunshine’s significant increase of 70.8% compared to the same period of last year, with a staggering 849MW in single-season shipments. The year-on-year increase in shipments of Trina Solar and Jinko Solar exceeded 50%.

The increase in gross margins has substantially narrowed the losses of these photovoltaic companies, and has caused huge losses in the past.

Among them, Yingli lost about 320 million yuan in the second quarter of this year, Trina Solar loss of about 208 million yuan; LDK loss of about 1.02 billion yuan. The above-mentioned three companies suffered losses of 570 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 1.609 billion yuan in the second quarter of last year, and suffered losses of 610 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.

Still cold in the upper reaches
However, most of these companies are mid-stream manufacturing companies and downstream power plant investment companies, and polysilicon companies and equipment providers in the upper reaches of the industry are still in a difficult position.

Due to the low-cost sales strategy of foreign polysilicon companies, most of the domestic polysilicon manufacturers have stopped production since 2012. In July, the preliminary results of the “double opposition” of polysilicon in the United States and South Korea made these companies disappointed.

On July 18, the investigation was reopened for one year, and the first trial was postponed three times. China’s heavy hammer of polysilicon in the United States and South Korea finally fell. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 48 Announcement of the year, announcing the preliminary decision on the anti-dumping investigation of imported solar grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea.

In the decision, the most affected polysilicon producer OCI was only levied an anti-dumping tax of 2.4%. Due to the fact that it was at the critical moment of the “double counter” defense against the EU, the anti-dumping ruling on the import of polysilicon into the EU was not simultaneous. Announced.

This result, not only has already suspended polysilicon companies dare not rashly resume production, and even let these companies listed behind the polysilicon concept to accelerate the spin-off of its polysilicon industry.

Jiangsu Sunshine has announced that it will withdraw from the polysilicon industry after a huge loss of 1.5 billion yuan; aerospace electromechanics had already stripped its polysilicon project as early as January of this year; as the polysilicon joint venture Tianwei silicon industry loan was overdue, Tianwei Baobian and Qijiang hydropower were being loaned. The bank has called for debts; Chuantou Energy has been trying to replace or spin off polysilicon assets that are currently not profitable; Ordos has invested nearly 3 billion yuan in polysilicon projects and has stalled; TBEA's newly built 12,000-ton polysilicon project, this year The company plans to resume production but has not yet completed production; the polysilicon project of Leshan Power is still undergoing technological reforms, and when the production resumed has not been determined.

According to the report of the Silicon Industry Branch, 43 polysilicon enterprises have been put into operation in the first half of 2013, of which only 6 companies are still in production. The capacity utilization rate is less than 30%, and the polysilicon industry has been suspended.

Constrained by the decline in the polysilicon industry, the company's willingness to expand new equipment is low, and it tends to be an efficient reform of the equipment. The demand for equipment such as single crystal furnaces and polycrystalline ingot furnaces is almost stagnant.

In the first half of 2013, Jinggong Technology added only RMB 113 million to new orders, and only RMB 9.08 million has been delivered. The unconfirmed sales revenue amounted to 819 million yuan.

At the same time, according to surveys, in the first half of the year, a well-known international equipment brand sold stoves at a low price in China, and the price was only about 20% of the peak period.

This has made the performance of photovoltaic equipment manufacturers put to the test.

In the first half of 2013, the revenue and net profit of several photovoltaic equipment manufacturers such as Jinggong Technology, Jingsheng Machinery and Electronic Technology, and Beijing Yuntong experienced a substantial drop. Among them, Jinggong Technology's operating income was 360 million yuan, a drop of 21.55%, a loss of 53.17 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 618.48%; Jingsheng Machinery & Electrical achieved an operating income of 122 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.68%, and a net profit of 26.074 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.27%. ; Beijing Express achieved operating income of 234 million yuan, down 4.21%, net profit of 12.489 million yuan, down 48.73%.

Benefiting the domestic market

Although the performance of the industry's upstream and downstream industries has been divided, overall, the entire industry has seen a reversal, and the recovery has become an industry consensus.

For the reason of warming, most of the companies attributed to the growing domestic market.

Since 2011, as the photovoltaic industry has been deeply mired in overcapacity, and the United States and the European Union have successively imposed “double reverse” sanctions on China, the entire industry is in a state of mourning, and the two largest companies have fallen into the difficult position of bankruptcy and reorganization.

The government had to introduce supporting policies to open up the domestic market. Since 2013, policy efforts have gradually increased. Following the photovoltaic “state eight” in July; at the end of August, the National Development and Reform Commission issued two consecutive documents, specifying the details of the tariff subsidies for photovoltaic power plants.

On July 15, the State Council issued a "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" and proposed that from 2013 to 2015, China will add an annual average of about 10 GW of installed capacity, and by 2015 it will have a total installed capacity of over 35 GW, which is more than planned for the previous year. The 20GW has increased dramatically.

On August 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued two consecutive documents, namely, “Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Exploiting Price Leverage to Promote Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry” and “National Development and Reform Commission’s Relevant Issues on Adjusting Additional Standards for Renewable Energy Prices and Environmental Protection Prices. Notice".

Through these two notifications, the country’s three supportive policies for the photovoltaic industry are clarified: the new subsidy for three types of ground power stations, which are subdivided into 0.9 yuan/kWh, 0.95 yuan/kWh, and 1 yuan/ton depending on the merits of optical resources. Kilowatt-hours; distributed photovoltaic power station subsidies 0.42 yuan / degree; renewable energy added from 8% to 1 point 5.

As both policies are higher than market expectations, industry insiders predict that China's PV installed capacity in 2013 will reach 8.5 GW, which is nearly 90% higher than the 4.5 GW in 2012, and China's PV installed capacity may reach 10 GW in 2014. the above.

Businesses have already smelled business opportunities and started to deploy their domestic markets.

Take Yijing Optoelectronics as an example, its operating income growth of 40% is mainly due to a substantial increase in domestic sales. During the reporting period, Yijing Optoelectronics' sales to domestic sales increased by 456.04% year-on-year, while sales to foreign countries decreased by 6.59%.

For those first-tier manufacturers that have mainly exported their products in the past, the Chinese market has become their new battlefield.

In the second quarter of 2013, the Chinese market has become the largest market for Trina Solar, with total revenue accounting for as high as 27%, and LDK's share of the Chinese market in the second quarter of this year has also reached 48%.

According to Guotai Junan’s research report, domestic PV manufacturing companies have gradually shifted their focus to domestic sales, and the proportion of domestic sales has been increasing year by year. Assume that domestic solar cell production will maintain a production volume of about 20 GW from 2013 to 2014. After the launch of the distributed demonstration project, domestic demand will consume 37.5% and 50% of output respectively from 2013 to 2014.

At the same time, component prices have also stopped falling in the first half of this year. It is understood that the current price of domestic PV modules is 56-58 cents/watt and is expected to rise to 68-70 cents/watt in the second half of the year.

Be alert to excess power station

Every time the industrial downturn, photovoltaic companies will think of power plants.

In the past two years, the business model of domestic photovoltaic companies is gradually changing, from the midstream component manufacturers to downstream power station developers.

The introduction of the PV “State of the Eight” in July and the electricity price subsidy policy in August further magnified this trend and set off a new round of investment in PV power plants.

Since August, many PV companies have announced large-scale power plant projects.

The “Five-Four-Four-Small-Sized” power generation enterprises of the central SOEs have received nearly RMB 30 billion of independent photovoltaic power supply construction projects. China National Machinery Industry Corporation and AVIC also won 2.9GW of PV power station orders.

Yingli, which has become the world's leading component enterprise, has also begun to increase investment in the power plant field. It has agreed to build nearly 4GW of photovoltaic power generation projects in Anyang, Henan, Huangshi, Hubei, Qujing, Yunnan, and Honghe.

Not only that, according to Wang Gang, Vice President of Yingli Group, he disclosed at a PV power station seminar that Yingli Group’s long-term plan is to install 15-17GW of large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations in China from 2013 to 2017, and cumulative installed PV 3GW.

Photovoltaic upstart Shunfeng Optoelectronics is equally crazy about investing in power plants.

Since July, Shunfeng Photoelectric has expanded its photovoltaic power plant project company in the market. In just over a month, it has acquired 17 companies and a total of 800MW photovoltaic power plant projects.

On September 2, Shunfeng Optoelectronics announced again that it has entered into a cooperation agreement with the 13th and 4th divisions of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps and will invest 16 billion yuan to establish a solar power plant project with an annual capacity of 1.5GW in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

According to industry sources, at present, the scale of photovoltaic power plants that have been built up for sale in China has already exceeded 3 GW. In accordance with such an investment rate and scale, domestic PV power plants will soon follow the steps of the components and fall into the overcapacity quagmire.