LED industry warming boom from downstream to upstream

In May, the LED industry in the market recovered, and the industry's recovery was confirmed with the announcement of the pre-announcement of the company's mid-term report. Analysts pointed out that the economy is being transmitted upstream from the downstream of the industry. Public information shows that several LED companies have released performance forecasts, and the pre-history is clearly the majority, which is in line with the rumored rebound in the LED industry in May.

Industry picks up

Recently, a number of LED companies have released the mid-term results forecast. Silan Micro announced that the company's net profit for the period from January to June 2013 is expected to increase by 250% to 300%, and the company's net profit in the first quarter of this year also fell by 37.27%.

For the performance growth, Silan Micro said that it is driven by the growth of downstream LED lighting, smart terminals and other segments, as well as the improvement of the US and European economies. The company's power management ICs, discrete device chips, power device products and other products have been shipped. The large-scale growth has led to a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of Hangzhou Silan IC Co., Ltd., an important subsidiary of the company, and a significant improvement in the profitability of chip production lines and power device packaging lines.

The same is true for Ruifeng Optoelectronics (300241). According to the company's forecast, the profit for the first half of 2013 was 23.87 million to 27.85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20% to 40%. For reasons of growth, the company said that compared with the same period last year, the capacity utilization rate increased, sales revenue and profits have increased significantly. It should be pointed out that Ruifeng Optoelectronics' non-recurring gains and losses in the first half of 2013 were 1.268 million yuan, which was almost negligible.

In addition, Jufei Optoelectronics (300303) expects the company's net profit for the first half of the year to increase by 25% to 55%. As for the reason for the increase, the company mentioned that the market is recovering.

However, the performance forecast of Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) is not optimistic. The company expects its performance in the first half of 2013 to fall by 30.57%~45.18%. The company said that “although the LED lighting industry has gradually recovered from this year, the sales volume of products in the second quarter has been higher than that. Rising, but due to fierce price competition, the sales price of the company's main MO source (high-purity metal organic compounds) decreased from last year.

The boom is conducting from downstream to upstream

It is not difficult to find that Nanda Optoelectronics, which is the source of MO, is almost the most upstream target of the LED industry, while the performance of the chip makers in the downstream, Lancome, and the packager Ruifeng Optoelectronics are not bad. "This is mainly due to the recovery of the downstream economy. The relationship that is only transmitted upwards," said a market source.

According to analysis, the current warming is mainly driven by downstream street lights and commercial lighting. Among them, Guangdong Province requires the completion of streetlight renovation before the end of 2013 in the Pearl River Delta region. Other regions have completed the renovation before 2014. At present, 800,000 street lamps have been completed. The amount of tenders in the quarter exceeded last year; Fujian required basic LED lighting products in the public lighting sector throughout the province by the end of 2015.

As for commercial lighting, it is because the technology upgrade has caused the price to be “citizenized”. According to news, Cree launched a $14 replacement for 60-watt incandescent LED bulbs for the mass market in early March, and Philips introduced LED bulbs for less than $10.

Due to the expiration of the energy-saving supplementary policy at the end of May, this led to an overdraft in the market in May. In June, it was inevitable that there would be a fall. Generally speaking, June-August was originally a low season. Last June, the chain ratio will probably drop by more than 30%, but this year it is obvious that the market has overdrawn the consumption. "But the growth is no suspense compared with last year," said the source. This year's order is still good.

Can pay attention to 4 stocks such as Qinshang Optoelectronics

Focus on the LED industry, can focus on four stocks. The first is the company that clearly benefits street lamps, such as Zhou Ming Technology (300232) and Qinshang Optoelectronics (002638).

According to the data, since 2008, Chau Ming Technology has successively built a number of domestic and international major projects such as the Guangdong Provincial Civic Center Semiconductor Street Light Demonstration Project, the Dutch ZEMEP project, the Swiss Airport Street Light Project, and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway Street Light Reconstruction Project. It is the first in the country to pass the US UL certification. Because of this, Chau Ming Technology can become the winning bidder for the project of street lamp complete equipment procurement and related services for the second phase of the township street lamp construction in Guangdong Province.

Qinshang Optoelectronics is a leading provider of semiconductor lighting products and integrated solutions in China. It specializes in LED landscape lighting, LED functional lighting, LED display and LED special lighting. Among them, LED function lighting based on high-power white LED lighting technology is the main direction of the company's main business. The company used high-power LED street lights to cut into tunnels, parking lots, squares, docks, subways, gas stations, stadiums and other outdoor lighting fields. As for indoor lighting in shopping malls, hotels, factories, office buildings, schools, homes, etc.

Sunlight Lighting (600261), which benefited from the channel (overseas recovery), also received market attention. According to the data, Sunlight Lighting is the largest energy-saving lamp production and export enterprise in China. It has won the bid for “National High-Efficiency Lighting Product Promotion Project” for five consecutive years. Its national energy-saving lamp procurement ranks first in the first year, with a market share close to 10%.

In addition, Dehao Runda (002005), which has opened up the upstream and downstream industry chain, is also worthy of attention. The data shows that Dehao Runda has completed the integrated industrial chain layout from LED epitaxial wafers, chips to packaging to applications (lamps, displays). Southwest Securities has pointed out that it is driven by the whole industry chain and sufficient orders. The future performance of Dehao Runda can basically be locked. In fact, some details also illustrate the market's favor. In the first quarter of 2013, the number of shareholders of the company was only 29,81, which was a sharp drop from the 42,601,000 at the end of 2012, and this situation continues. On April 17, the number of shareholders was 28,755,000. The sharp decline in the number of shareholders seems to be the only one in the LED company.

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