This week, the downstream market in China has shown signs of weakening, yet the major assembly plants still have around 630 pending orders for end-user projects. Coupled with a strong focus on overseas demands, their capacity utilization rates remain robust. However, with prices beginning to ease, this may not bode well for the upstream segment's pricing stability. Outside of China, international demand remains fervent, and prices continue to climb.
In the polysilicon segment, sustained demand from wafer producers has kept pressure on supply. Major polysilicon facilities are currently undergoing annual maintenance, which has led to a reduction in output. Consequently, prices have started to increase. Currently, the domestic market price in China stands at RMB121-126/kg, with expectations for further upward movement next week, potentially reaching RMB128-130/kg.
For wafers, despite the uncertainty surrounding downstream demand in August, polysilicon film prices remained stable this week. Meanwhile, in smaller markets, polysilicon chips continue to experience shortages, with orders being pushed into late August. Special high-efficiency polysilicon film prices have surged to US$0.66-0.7/pc. Monocrystalline wafer prices stayed steady at US$0.787-0.83/pc. As monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacities gradually increase and domestic demand wanes, supplies from the Taiwan plant have tightened somewhat. If upstream polysilicon prices maintain their momentum and there’s continued support from overseas demand, we could see further price hikes in the next two weeks.
The solar cell segment saw little change this week. Downstream manufacturers’ overseas orders remain plentiful, keeping prices stable in the spot market. Prices for non-ground-mounted battery films rose slightly but are still acceptable to most end-users. By August, rising polysilicon costs and capped downstream module prices will likely lead to challenging negotiation scenarios for battery producers.
In the module segment, both prices and demand are expanding, with tier-one manufacturers receiving concentrated overseas orders. While there has been a slight decline in prices, capacity utilization remains positive. Conversely, smaller and mid-sized manufacturers focusing on the domestic market have seen sharp price drops, influenced by varying levels of market demand.
Looking ahead, the balance between supply and demand across these segments will continue to evolve, impacting pricing dynamics and market strategies.
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