How can China's new energy vehicles under the China-US trade war highlight their encirclement? 】
China's New Energy Vehicle to U.S. is in a Trade Deficit
Before the Sino-U.S. trade war was formally launched, China’s new energy vehicles have been in a period of rapid development. In comparison with the United States, sales in 2016 first achieved a go-ahead, when sales of new energy vehicles in China were 50.7. For 10,000 vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States was 446,000 vehicles. In 2017, sales of new energy vehicles in China and the United States further widened the gap. In that year, sales of new energy vehicles in China were 777,000 units, while sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were only 477,000 units. China New Energy The sales of automobiles led the United States to sell 300,000 new energy vehicles.
Chart 1: Comparison of sales of new energy vehicles between China and the United States, 2015-2017
In terms of the export of new energy vehicles, the number of new energy vehicles exported in 2016 was 106,400 units, while imports were 25,700 units. The number of exports was much greater than the number of imports, and the trade surplus had obvious advantages.
Chart 2: China's New Energy Vehicle Exports in 2017 (Unit: Taiwan, Ten Thousand U.S. Dollars)
However, the Prospect Industry Research Institute’s Analysis Report on the Development Prospects and Investment Strategic Planning of China's New Energy Industry from 2018 to 2023 analyzed that although China’s new energy vehicles have been in a favorable balance of trade, our country’s new energy vehicles for the United States Has always been in a disadvantageous position in the trade deficit.
According to statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in 2017, there were a total of 25,700 imported new energy vehicles (including hybrid power) in the country, of which the main importer was the United States. The sales of optical Tesla brand in the country reached as high as 16,700. Vehicle. However, the number of new energy vehicles exported to the United States is very small, with 214 units for pure electric passenger cars, 37 units for pure electric passenger cars, and 1042 units for passenger cars, while passenger cars for mixed passenger cars are With 28 units, China’s new energy vehicles exported 1,321 units to the United States in 2017.
Chart 3: Export of pure electric passenger cars in 2017 (Unit: Taiwan, ten thousand US dollars)
Chart 4: Export of pure electric buses in 2017 (Unit: Taiwan, ten thousand US dollars)
Exhibit 5: Export of Mixed Passenger Cars in 2017 (Unit: Taiwan, Million US Dollars)
Exhibit 6: Export of passenger cars in 2017 (unit: Taiwan, ten thousand US dollars)
The United States provoked a trade war and suppressed the “Made in China 2025†Power Project from the source
Under the huge trade deficit here, even if the US’s new energy vehicles for China are increased from the original 2% tariff to 25%, the impact on China’s new energy automobile industry will be minimal. The U.S. initiative to provoke a trade war, in the short-term, wants to guide the U.S. manufacturing industry backflow and return to its peak; and the real intention is to suppress China’s “Made in China 2025†power plan in the long run.
In "Made in China 2025", the new energy automobile industry is included in the ten strategic emerging industries. Today, the new energy automobile industry is also in a special period of transition and breakthrough in policy guidance and competition.
According to "Made in China 2025", by 2020 China's new energy automobile market will have to meet the production of over 2 million electric vehicles. According to this development rate, by 2025, the output of China's new energy vehicles will be around 5 million. At the same time, the United States has also increased taxes to prevent future developments. After China’s new energy vehicles achieve technological breakthroughs and produce economies of scale, they will quickly capture the United States’ domestic market because of the US’ low 2% tariff. The tax increase at this time is to suppress the development of China's new energy automobile industry at the source.
Chart 7: "China Made 2025" Demands for New Energy Vehicles and Sales Targets
There is a possibility of peace talks between the two sides, and the outcome of the negotiations is difficult to predict
According to the documents published by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Trump administration is willing to negotiate on tariff issues with China under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. Therefore, there is a possibility of Sino-US peace talks. However, the trade war itself is a game process. Negotiations must achieve exchange of benefits.
There are several directions for the negotiations. One is that the two sides suffered heavy losses and they stopped their arms to shake hands and talks; or reached the Trump demanded equality, so that China's tariffs also fell to 2%, consistent with the United States; or China is not Willing to lower tariffs, and China's new energy vehicles can only go to the United States to build factories for tax benefits, which is extremely beneficial to the U.S. manufacturing industry. Of course there will be the possibility of negotiation failure. Both China and the United States will not compromise and the trade war will escalate. The fighting will become increasingly fierce until one of the parties can no longer afford the loss and finally compromise.
New energy vehicles are also facing opportunities and breakthroughs in technological innovation.
The impact of the trade war between China and the United States is far-reaching, but in the short term, the impact on China's new energy vehicles is not great, even good. Because in the list of Chinese sanctions against the United States, there are also new energy vehicles. China’s tax increase on new energy vehicles in the United States will inevitably force higher costs for US-based new energy vehicles to enter the Chinese market and will also increase the prices of these new products. This is good news for China’s new energy auto industry.
However, in the long run, trade warfare is unfavorable to China’s new energy automotive industry. China’s new energy vehicles can only rely on technology to break through and make a fuss about three core areas of motors, electronic control and batteries. “Made in China 2025†is also new The technical level of key systems for energy vehicles, such as power batteries and drive motors, has made demands. In 2020, key systems such as power batteries and drive motors for new energy vehicles in China have reached the international advanced level, and in 2030, they will have to be cultivated. 3 new energy auto parts enterprises with international leading level. The country will make specific demands on the technical upgrading of new energy vehicles, and domestic new energy automobile manufacturers must also implement corresponding technological upgrades so that they can be suppressed in the Sino-US trade war and in the future, the United States will In the crackdown on new energy vehicles, they broke out.
Chart 8: Technical breakthroughs for new energy vehicles in "Made in China 2025"
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