The history of reading teaches us wisdom, and this is also true for companies and industries. Over the years, the 3-year expansion plan of Single Crystal Long Long Co., Ltd. has drawn attention to the photovoltaic (PV) industry. In 2017, the PV sector was booming, with many companies racing to expand their production capacity.
This round of capacity expansion was driven by the "630 rush to install" policy, which incentivized rapid project completion before June 30th to benefit from higher feed-in tariffs. Major PV players were competing fiercely to capture market share. Interestingly, the aggressive expansion seen from 2017 to now mirrors the overcapacity trends of 2007 and 2008. Back then, unchecked growth led to a collapse in many PV firms. Now, as the industry expands again, questions remain: Will history repeat itself?
**A New Wave of Expansion**
Photovoltaic companies are locked in a race to boost production capacity. Longji recently announced a three-year plan to increase its monocrystalline silicon wafer production. By the end of 2017, it aimed for 15 GW, targeting 28 GW by 2018 and 45 GW by 2020—a staggering 87% increase in 2017 alone. Another major player, Zhonghuan, added 5.8 GW of single-crystal capacity in September 2017, aiming for 23 GW by the end of 2019.
Beyond monocrystalline silicon, the polysilicon sector is also seeing massive investments. Tongwei, for example, invested 34.14 billion yuan in 2017 across self-built and joint PV projects, surpassing its revenue from the previous year. With two new 100,000-ton polysilicon plants under construction, Tongwei is set to become the world's largest producer.
Other companies, including GCL-Poly, Trina Solar, and Artes, have also joined the expansion wave. This surge is largely fueled by the "630 rush," which pushed developers to complete projects before the end of June 2017 to qualify for 2016 tariff rates.
**The 630 Stimulus**
In late 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission reduced the benchmark grid-connected electricity prices for 2017, leading to a significant drop in PV tariffs. To take advantage of the higher 2016 rates, many companies rushed to complete projects before June 30. As a result, the first half of 2017 saw 24.4 GW of new PV installations—surpassing the same period in 2016 by 22.5 GW.
Industry experts note that this expansion is not just about capturing short-term subsidies but also about securing long-term market dominance. “China has become the world’s largest consumer of solar power,†said Xue Jing from the China Electricity Council. “This is very different from a decade ago when we were both technologically and commercially out of the market.â€
**Lessons from the Past**
History shows that overexpansion often leads to overcapacity. In 2007–2008, the PV industry faced a bubble, followed by a crash due to excess supply and falling prices. Many companies went bankrupt or restructured. The polysilicon sector, in particular, suffered from overproduction, with output skyrocketing from 60 tons in 2005 to 4,000 tons by 2008.
Shi Zhengrong, former chairman of Wuxi Suntech, warned of a “PV bubble†as early as 2007. When the financial crisis hit in 2008, demand fell, and prices plummeted, leaving many firms struggling. Companies like Suntech and LDK eventually collapsed.
**Risks and Reactions**
Today, the PV industry is once again expanding rapidly. While some believe the market is more mature than before, others warn of potential overcapacity. A senior executive from a major PV firm told reporters, “This time, the industry is more structured, but expansion still brings risks.â€
Analysts like Wang Xiuqiang from Huachuang Securities argue that the “Matthew effect†is at play—larger, more efficient companies will dominate, while smaller, less competitive firms may struggle. This trend is already visible, with major players forming alliances and mergers to strengthen their positions.
However, not everyone is optimistic. Wang Bohua, vice chairman of the China PV Industry Association, urged caution. “We must be careful about overheating,†he said. “Expansions should match global demand and technical capabilities. We don’t want to see another surplus crisis like in 2011.â€
As the PV industry continues to grow, the question remains: Will this expansion lead to sustainable progress, or will it repeat the mistakes of the past? Only time will tell.
50L Agriculture Drone,Agriculture Electric Sprayer Uav,Agriculture Sprayer Fertilizer Drone,Drone Sprayer
Xuzhou Jitian Intelligent Equipment Co. Ltd , https://www.jitianintelligent.com